Gloucester’s docks are quieter now than they were. It’s missing something, but not quite silent. The gulls continue to circle in the same manner, a few boats continue to arrive, and a few buyers continue to wait. However, anyone who has visited these harbors in the past 20 years can sense that the beat has shifted. What the captains have been whispering about for months is confirmed by the most recent quarterly data from all of New England’s fishing ports. It was the worst three months the industry has experienced in almost ten years, according to almost all relevant metrics.
The problem with the numbers is that they cease to feel like numbers. It almost seems unfair to compare the two because cod landings have drastically decreased from historical averages. In its worst recent year on record, Maine, which once harvested over 21 million pounds of cod in a single year, brought in less than 170,000 pounds. The catch in Massachusetts, the epicenter of American cod fishing, fell from almost 100 million pounds in 1980 to less than 3 million pounds by 2015. By all accounts, the most recent quarter is located even lower on that lengthy decline.
| Sector Snapshot | New England Commercial Fishing |
|---|---|
| Region Covered | Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island |
| Primary Species (Historical) | Atlantic cod, haddock, redfish, lobster |
| Maine Cod Landings (2016) | Less than 170,000 pounds |
| Maine’s Record Year | 1991, with over 21 million pounds of cod landed |
| Massachusetts Cod Catch Decline | From nearly 100 million pounds (1980) to under 3 million (2015) |
| Gulf of Maine Warming Rate | Faster than 99.9% of the global ocean |
| Wage Drop Per Climate Shock | Roughly 35 percent over six years |
| Jobs Lost in Hardest-Hit Communities | About 16 percent since 1996 |
| Federal Cod Quota (Gulf of Maine) | Down from 18 million lbs (2011) to about 1 million lbs (2016) |
| Regulating Body | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
Many fishermen are still tempted to place the blame on regulators. In the Gulf of Maine, the federal quota was reduced from more than 18 million pounds in 2011 to about a million pounds. That math is harsh from a captain’s point of view. A million pounds spread over a whole fleet is not enough to fuel a boat, pay a crew, and maintain the seaworthiness of an old wooden hull. However, focusing only on the quotas ignores the more complex narrative that scholars like Kimberly Oremus of the University of Delaware have been covertly recording. Her research indicates that the ocean itself is more difficult to dispute than a regulator’s spreadsheet.
99.9% of the world’s oceans are warming more slowly than the Gulf of Maine, that frigid inlet between Cape Cod and Nova Scotia. Take a moment to consider that. Simply put, cold-water species are disappearing. Warmer-water species, such as blue crab, have not yet reached commercial quantities, but lobster populations have been moving north into Canadian waters. Economically and biologically, there is a gap that small operators are falling into. According to Oremus’ calculations, between 1996 and 2017, the most affected communities lost 16% of their jobs and 13% of their fishing revenue due to unusual atmospheric pressure shifts, the kind associated with climate change. The effects of each shock, which reduced wages by about 35%, persisted for years.
Therefore, what this quarter actually demonstrates is not an abrupt catastrophe. It is the total weight of those who move slowly. You hear the same thing in various accents when you speak with anyone who operates a small boat out of Rockport or Point Judith. The youth are not visiting. Permits are being sold by the elderly.
Since there isn’t enough domestic fish to fill a freezer case, the processors are purchasing cod from Norway and Iceland. Some economists believe that warm-water species may eventually restore what has been lost. However, it’s also possible—and becoming more likely—that some of these towns will just cease to be fishing communities. There’s a sense that something older than the industry itself is being quietly logged out of existence as it develops, quarter by quarter, and no one seems to know exactly what to do about it.
